{"id":11926,"date":"2023-02-26T11:45:28","date_gmt":"2023-02-26T03:45:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/\/?p=11926"},"modified":"2023-06-08T09:19:16","modified_gmt":"2023-06-08T01:19:16","slug":"what-is-gamblers-fallacy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/\/what-is-gamblers-fallacy\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\uff1f\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1f\u4e00\u7d55\u62db\u8b93\u4f60\u907f\u514d\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-style-rounded\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"563\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\uff1f.jpg\" alt=\"\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\uff1f\" class=\"wp-image-11927\" title=\"\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\uff1f\" srcset=\"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\uff1f.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\uff1f-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\uff1f-768x432.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\uff1f<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8b80\u8005\u6709\u807d\u904e\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4 ( Gambler&#8217;s Fallacy ) \u9019\u500b\u8a5e\u55ce\uff1f\u8b80\u8005\u53ef\u77e5\u9053\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\uff1f\u6211\u5011\u53c8\u8a72\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u672c\u7bc7\u4ecb\u7d39\u5c07\u6703\u8b1b\u8ff0\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u9084\u6703\u8aaa\u8aaa\u6211\u5011\u8a72\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4<\/strong>\uff0c\u60f3\u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u7684\u8b80\u8005\u5c31\u4f86\u770b\u770b\u672c\u7bc7\u4ecb\u7d39\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_64 ez-toc-wrap-center counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title \" >\u672c\u6587\u76ee\u9304<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=/index.html"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/what-is-gamblers-fallacy\/#%E8%B3%AD%E5%BE%92%E8%AC%AC%E8%AA%A4%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E9%BA%BC%E6%84%8F%E6%80%9D%EF%BC%9F\" title=\"\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\uff1f\">\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\uff1f<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/what-is-gamblers-fallacy\/#%E8%B3%AD%E5%BE%92%E8%AC%AC%E8%AA%A4%E4%BE%8B%E5%AD%90\" title=\"\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50\">\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/what-is-gamblers-fallacy\/#%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E8%82%A1%E7%A5%A8%E4%B8%8A%E7%9A%84%E8%B3%AD%E5%BE%92%E8%AC%AC%E8%AA%A4%E4%BE%8B%E5%AD%90\" title=\"\u6295\u8cc7\u80a1\u7968\u4e0a\u7684\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50\">\u6295\u8cc7\u80a1\u7968\u4e0a\u7684\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/what-is-gamblers-fallacy\/#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E9%81%BF%E5%85%8D%E8%B3%AD%E5%BE%92%E8%AC%AC%E8%AA%A4%EF%BC%9F\" title=\"\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\uff1f\">\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\uff1f<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/what-is-gamblers-fallacy\/#%E8%B3%AD%E5%BE%92%E8%AC%AC%E8%AA%A4%E4%BB%8B%E7%B4%B9%E7%B5%90%E8%AA%9E\" title=\"\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4ecb\u7d39\u7d50\u8a9e\">\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4ecb\u7d39\u7d50\u8a9e<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/what-is-gamblers-fallacy\/#%E5%B8%B8%E8%A6%8B%E5%95%8F%E9%A1%8C\" title=\"\u5e38\u898b\u554f\u984c\">\u5e38\u898b\u554f\u984c<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E8%B3%AD%E5%BE%92%E8%AC%AC%E8%AA%A4%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E9%BA%BC%E6%84%8F%E6%80%9D%EF%BC%9F\"><\/span>\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\uff1f<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4 ( Gambler&#8217;s Fallacy ) \u4ea6\u88ab\u7a31\u4f5c\u8499\u7279\u5361\u6d1b\u8b2c\u8aa4 ( Monte Carlo Fallacy )\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u975e\u5e38\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\u504f\u8aa4\u73fe\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u8ced\u5f92\u504f\u8aa4\u7684\u610f\u601d<\/strong>\u6307\u7684\u662f\uff1a\u300c\u932f\u8aa4\u5730\u8a8d\u70ba\u96a8\u6a5f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u4e4b\u524d\u7121\u95dc\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u300d\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6703\u8a8d\u70ba\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u672a\u4f86\u4e8b\u4ef6\u767c\u751f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7c21\u55ae\u4f86\u8aaa\u4eba\u5011\u6703\u8a8d\u70ba\uff1a\u300c\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u5f88\u4e45\u6c92\u6709\u767c\u751f\u4e86\uff0c\u90a3\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u61c9\u8a72\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u6703\u767c\u751f\u624d\u5c0d\u3002\u300d\u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u5404\u81ea\u4e8b\u4ef6\u90fd\u662f\u7368\u7acb\u7684\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u4e0d\u6703\u4e92\u76f8\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-palette-color-6-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\u8aaa\u8ced\u5834\u6709\u4e00\u7a2e\u8ced\u76e4\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8b93\u5713\u7403\u5728\u8ced\u76e4\u4e0a\u6efe\u52d5\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6efe\u5230\u9ed1\u8272\u6216\u7d05\u8272\u7684\u5340\u57df\uff0c\u800c\u8ced\u5ba2\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u904e\u731c\u5230\u5713\u7403\u6703\u6efe\u5230\u54ea\u88e1\u800c\u9032\u884c\u4e0b\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u6642\u5019\u5982\u679c\u5713\u7403\u9023\u7e8c\u6efe\u5230\u7d05\u8272\u7684\u5340\u57df\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u8ced\u5ba2\u5c31\u6703\u8a8d\u70ba\u300c\u61c9\u8a72\u5feb\u8981\u6efe\u5230\u9ed1\u8272\u5340\u57df\u4e86\u5427\u300d\uff0c\u7e3d\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6bcf\u6b21\u90fd\u6efe\u5230\u7d05\u8272\u5340\u57df\u5427\uff1f<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u800c\u5c31\u7b97\u524d\u9762\u5df2\u7d93\u5341\u6b21\u90fd\u5728\u7d05\u8272\u5340\u57df\uff0c\u7b2c\u5341\u4e00\u6b21\u6efe\u5230\u7d05\u8272\u6216\u9ed1\u8272\u5340\u57df\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u4ecd\u662f\u5404\u534a\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\u4ecd\u70ba\u7368\u7acb\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u524d\u9762\u6240\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E8%B3%AD%E5%BE%92%E8%AC%AC%E8%AA%A4%E4%BE%8B%E5%AD%90\"><\/span>\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"563\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50.jpg\" alt=\"\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50\" class=\"wp-image-11928\" title=\"\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50\" srcset=\"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50-768x432.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c<strong>\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u6700\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50<\/strong>\u5c31\u662f 1913 \u5e74\u767c\u751f\u5728\u8499\u7279\u5361\u6d1b\u8ced\u5834\u7684\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u7684\u5225\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u8499\u7279\u5361\u6d1b\u8b2c\u8aa4\u300d( Monte Carlo Fallacy ) \u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7576\u6642\u5019\u8ced\u5ba2\u5011\u5c31\u5728\u73a9\u8ced\u8f2a\u76e4\u9019\u500b\u8ced\u535a\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u9019\u6642\u5019\u537b\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u4ef6\u4ee4\u4eba\u9a5a\u5947\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u6efe\u7403\u9023\u7e8c\u7684\u6efe\u5230\u9ed1\u8272\u7684\u5340\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-palette-color-6-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p>\u9019\u6642\u5019\u6240\u767c\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u8ced\u535a \u2500\u2500 \u7403\u6efe\u5165\u9ed1\u8272\u5340\u57df<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u8ced\u535a \u2500\u2500 \u7403\u6efe\u5165\u9ed1\u8272\u5340\u57df<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u8ced\u535a \u2500\u2500 \u7403\u6efe\u5165\u9ed1\u8272\u5340\u57df<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7b2c\u4e94\u6b21\u8ced\u535a \u2500\u2500 \u7403\u6efe\u5165\u9ed1\u8272\u5340\u57df<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7b2c\u5341\u6b21\u8ced\u535a \u2500\u2500 \u7403\u6efe\u5165\u9ed1\u8272\u5340\u57df<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u2026\u2026<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5230\u4e86\u9019\u500b\u6642\u5019\u5404\u4f4d\u8b80\u8005\u5982\u679c\u5728\u73fe\u5834\uff0c\u6703\u9078\u64c7\u8ced\u54ea\u908a\u5462\uff1f\u5468\u570d\u8ced\u5ba2\u770b\u5230\u9019\u60c5\u6cc1\u90fd\u5616\u5616\u7a31\u5947\uff0c\u7d1b\u7d1b\u570d\u4e0a\u4f86\u89c0\u770b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c\u5728\u73fe\u5834\u7684\u8ced\u5f92\u4e5f\u5df2\u7d93\u8ced\u7d05\u4e86\u773c\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u9023\u7e8c\u5341\u6b21\u4e86\uff0c\u4e0b\u6b21\u7d05\u8272\u7684\u300c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u300d\u61c9\u8a72\u6703\u5f88\u9ad8\u5427\uff1f\u8ced\u5f92\u5982\u6b64\u60f3\u8457\uff0c\u958b\u59cb\u62bc\u6ce8\u5728\u7d05\u8272\u5340\u57df\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-palette-color-6-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p>\u7136\u800c\u4e8b\u60c5\u7e3d\u662f\u51fa\u4e4e\u4eba\u5011\u610f\u6599\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>\u7b2c\u5341\u4e00\u6b21\u8ced\u535a \u2500\u2500 \u7403\u6efe\u5165\u9ed1\u8272\u5340\u57df<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7b2c\u5341\u4e8c\u6b21\u8ced\u535a \u2500\u2500 \u7403\u6efe\u5165\u9ed1\u8272\u5340\u57df<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7b2c\u5341\u4e09\u6b21\u8ced\u535a \u2500\u2500 \u7403\u6efe\u5165\u9ed1\u8272\u5340\u57df<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7b2c\u5341\u4e94\u6b21\u8ced\u535a \u2500\u2500 \u7403\u6efe\u5165\u9ed1\u8272\u5340\u57df<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5341\u6b21\u8ced\u535a \u2500\u2500 \u7403\u6efe\u5165\u9ed1\u8272\u5340\u57df<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u2026\u2026<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u5834\u7684\u8ced\u5f92\u5e7e\u4e4e\u90fd\u8981\u6293\u72c2\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4ecd\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0b\u6ce8\u5728\u7d05\u8272\u5340\u57df\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f46\u90a3\u8a72\u6b7b\u7684\u6efe\u7403\u537b\u662f\u6c38\u9060\u90fd\u505c\u7559\u5728\u9ed1\u8272\u5340\u57df\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u6642\u5019\u4ed6\u5011\u4ecd\u96e3\u4ee5\u4e86\u89e3\u7368\u7acb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u5176\u5be6\u6bcf\u6b21\u90fd\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u91cd\u8907\u6efe\u5230\u9ed1\u8272\u7684\u5340\u57df\u6a5f\u7387\u5f88\u5c0f\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u6efe\u5165\u9ed1\u8272\u6216\u7d05\u8272\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u4ecd\u662f 50%\uff1a50%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6700\u5f8c\u6efe\u7403\u4ecd\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0d\u65b7\u5730\u8dd1\u5230\u9ed1\u8272\u5340\u57df\uff0c\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5341\u4e03\u6b21\u7684\u6642\u5019\u9b54\u5492\u7d42\u65bc\u6253\u7834\u4e86\uff0c\u6efe\u7403\u7d42\u65bc\u6efe\u5165\u7d05\u8272\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u6642\u7d93\u904e\u65c1\u908a\u597d\u4e8b\u8005\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\uff0c\u9019\u7fa4\u8ced\u5f92\u5df2\u7d93\u640d\u5931\u4e0a\u767e\u842c\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u500b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6559\u8a13\u662f\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u8f2a\u76e4\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u90fd\u662f\u7368\u7acb\u7684\uff0c\u524d\u4e00\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u67d0\u4e00\u500b\u865f\u78bc\u6216\u984f\u8272\u4e26\u4e0d\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\u57fa\u65bc\u300c\u904e\u53bb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u300d\u53bb\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f86\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e Gambler&#8217;s Fallacy \u7684\u601d\u7dad\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3 \u9019\u500b\u6982\u5ff5\u5f8c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e6b\u52a9\u4eba\u5011\u907f\u514d\u9019\u7a2e\u601d\u8003\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u4e26\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u660e\u667a\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E8%82%A1%E7%A5%A8%E4%B8%8A%E7%9A%84%E8%B3%AD%E5%BE%92%E8%AC%AC%E8%AA%A4%E4%BE%8B%E5%AD%90\"><\/span>\u6295\u8cc7\u80a1\u7968\u4e0a\u7684\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"563\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/\u6295\u8cc7\u80a1\u7968\u4e0a\u7684\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50.jpg\" alt=\"\u6295\u8cc7\u80a1\u7968\u4e0a\u7684\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50\" class=\"wp-image-11929\" title=\"\u6295\u8cc7\u80a1\u7968\u4e0a\u7684\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50\" srcset=\"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/\u6295\u8cc7\u80a1\u7968\u4e0a\u7684\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/\u6295\u8cc7\u80a1\u7968\u4e0a\u7684\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/\u6295\u8cc7\u80a1\u7968\u4e0a\u7684\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50-768x432.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u6295\u8cc7\u80a1\u7968\u4e0a\u7684\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f8b\u5b50<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c\u6295\u8cc7\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u4ecd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u767c\u751f\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u601d\u7dad\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u505a\u51fa\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8209\u4f8b\u4f86\u8aaa\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u770b\u5230\u67d0\u500b\u80a1\u7968\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u8868\u73fe\u51fa\u8272\uff0c\u8a72\u6a94\u80a1\u7968\u4e00\u8def\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u9019\u6642\u5019\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8a8d\u70ba\u61c9\u8a72\u8981\u7372\u5229\u4e86\u7d50\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u80a1\u7968\u5f88\u96e3\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u800c\u5e02\u5834\u672c\u8eab\u4e0d\u53ef\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\uff0c\u4e14\u80a1\u5e02\u50f9\u683c\u662f\u7531\u591a\u7a2e\u56e0\u7d20\u5171\u540c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u53ef\u80fd\u8207\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u4e0d\u76f8\u95dc\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u5230\u773e\u591a\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u97ff\u800c\u8d70\u5411\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6703\u60f3\u8a66\u5716\u300c\u6284\u5e95\u300d\u8cb7\u5165\u4e0d\u65b7\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u80a1\u7968\u53d7\u5230\u591a\u65b9\u56e0\u7d20\u6240\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u4ecd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-palette-color-6-background-color has-background\">\u6240\u4ee5\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u61c9\u8a72\u57fa\u65bc\u5168\u9762\u7684\u5206\u6790\u548c\u5224\u65b7\u4f86\u505a\u51fa\u6295\u8cc7\u6c7a\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u55ae\u7d14\u5730\u4f9d\u8cf4\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u6578\u64da\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u4e0d\u7136\u9677\u5165\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u7684\u601d\u7dad\u4e2d\u5c31\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u932f\u8aa4\u6c7a\u7b56\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u640d\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E9%81%BF%E5%85%8D%E8%B3%AD%E5%BE%92%E8%AC%AC%E8%AA%A4%EF%BC%9F\"><\/span>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\uff1f<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u60f3\u8981\u5b8c\u5168<strong>\u907f\u514d\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4<\/strong>\u662f\u5f88\u96e3\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u672c\u4f86\u5c31\u662f\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u6163\u6027\u601d\u7dad\u6240\u5c0e\u81f4\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6211\u5011\u4ecd\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u904e\u591a\u65b9\u601d\u8003\u3001\u5be9\u614e\u8a55\u4f30\u4f86\u64fa\u812b\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-palette-color-6-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p>\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>\u8a8d\u8b58\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5b78\u7fd2\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u77e5\u8b58<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e0d\u8981\u904e\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u591a\u65b9\u8a62\u554f\u610f\u898b\u3001\u770b\u6cd5<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u5011\u4e86\u89e3\u8ced\u5f92\u9762\u8b2c\u8aa4\u5f8c\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u53bb\u5b78\u7fd2\u6982\u7387\u548c\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u7684\u57fa\u790e\u77e5\u8b58\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e6b\u52a9\u6211\u5011\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u7368\u7acb\u6027\u548c\u96a8\u6a5f\u6027\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u66f4\u6e96\u78ba\u5730\u4f30\u8a08\u98a8\u96aa\u548c\u6a5f\u6703\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e26\u4e14\u907f\u514d\u904e\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u4e26\u9069\u5408\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u4ea4\u6d41\u8a0e\u8ad6\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u904e\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u4f7f\u6211\u5011\u5ffd\u8996\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u76f2\u76ee\u8ffd\u6c42\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u9677\u5165\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u7684\u9677\u9631\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4fdd\u6301\u51b7\u975c\u3001\u5ba2\u89c0\u548c\u8b39\u614e\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u591a\u65b9\u4e86\u89e3\u4ed6\u4eba\u610f\u898b\uff0c\u5c0d\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u9032\u884c\u5168\u9762\u8a55\u4f30\u548c\u98a8\u96aa\u8a55\u4f30\uff0c\u9019\u624d\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u6548\u64fa\u812b\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c\u300c\u591a\u65b9\u8a62\u554f\u610f\u898b\u300d\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u932f\u7684\u8fa6\u6cd5\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e0d\u4e86\u89e3\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u5426\u9677\u5165\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4e2d\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u9019\u6642\u5019\u8a62\u554f\u4ed6\u4eba\u610f\u898b\u4fbf\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u4e0d\u932f\u7684\u64fa\u812b\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u591a\u8a62\u554f\u3001\u591a\u601d\u8003\u65b9\u80fd\u64fa\u812b\u932f\u8aa4\u601d\u7dad\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-palette-color-6-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p>\u800c\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0a\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>\u5efa\u7acb\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5206\u6563\u6295\u8cc7<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e0d\u8981\u8ffd\u6c42\u5feb\u901f\u81f4\u5bcc<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u901a\u904e\u5efa\u7acb\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8a08\u756b\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u4e0d\u8981\u76f8\u4fe1\u5929\u4e0a\u6703\u6389\u4e0b\u4f86\u300c\u514d\u8cbb\u7684\u5348\u9910\u300d\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u64fa\u812b\u76f2\u76ee\u8ffd\u6c42\u9ad8\u56de\u5831\u537b\u4e0d\u614e\u9677\u5165\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u60f3\u8981\u9577\u4e45\u7684\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u5e02\u5834\u751f\u5b58\uff0c\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9577\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\u8207\u6295\u8cc7\u908f\u8f2f\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u8ffd\u9ad8\u6bba\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u9577\u4e45\u7372\u5229\uff0c\u9019\u4fbf\u662f\u64fa\u812b\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0a\u7684\u8ced\u5f92\u504f\u8aa4\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E8%B3%AD%E5%BE%92%E8%AC%AC%E8%AA%A4%E4%BB%8B%E7%B4%B9%E7%B5%90%E8%AA%9E\"><\/span>\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4ecb\u7d39\u7d50\u8a9e<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u95dc\u65bc\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u7684\u4ecb\u7d39\u5c31\u5230\u9019\u88e1\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u89ba\u5f97\u6295\u8cc7\u7375\u624b\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u5beb\u5f97\u4e0d\u932f\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u524d\u5f80\u6295\u8cc7\u7375\u624b&nbsp;<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/finesttracker\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FB \u7c89\u5c08<\/a>\u6309\u8b9a\u652f\u6301\u6211\u7684\u5275\u4f5c\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u628a\u6587\u7ae0\u5206\u4eab\u7d66\u559c\u611b\u6295\u8cc7\u7406\u8ca1\u7684\u89aa\u670b\u597d\u53cb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u60f3\u8981\u589e\u9032\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u904e<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/product.mchannles.com\/2w5h6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener sponsored nofollow\">\u7dda\u4e0a\u8ab2\u7a0b<\/a>\u4f86\u57f9\u990a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u77e5\u8b58\uff0c\u4ea6\u6216\u662f\u89c0\u770b\u6295\u8cc7\u7375\u624b\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4f86\u589e\u9032\u6295\u8cc7\u7406\u8ca1\u77e5\u8b58\u54e6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-palette-color-6-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p>\u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/what-is-confirmation-bias\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u78ba\u8a8d\u504f\u8aa4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u78ba\u8a8d\u504f\u8aa4\uff1f\u4e09\u65b9\u6cd5\u89e3\u6c7a<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/what-is-survivorship-bias\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u300c\u5016\u5b58\u8005\u504f\u5dee\u300d\u7684\u610f\u601d\uff1f\u53ea\u662f\u300c\u6b7b\u4eba\u4e0d\u6703\u8aaa\u8a71\u300d\u800c\u5df2<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/introduction-of-anchoring-effect\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5b9a\u9328\u6548\u61c9\u7684\u610f\u601d\uff1f\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1f\u6295\u8cc7\uff1f\u884c\u92b7\uff1f\u4e94\u5206\u9418\u6df1\u5165\u4e86\u89e3<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/currency-risk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u532f\u7387\u98a8\u96aa\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\uff1f\u5f9e\u516c\u53f8\u8207\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4f86\u770b\u5916\u532f\u907f\u96aa\u7b56\u7565<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/what-is-herd-behavior\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u7f8a\u7fa4\u6548\u61c9\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1f\u6df1\u5165\u4e86\u89e3\u70ba\u4f55\u4eba\u6703\u76f2\u76ee\u5f9e\u773e<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%B8%B8%E8%A6%8B%E5%95%8F%E9%A1%8C\"><\/span>\u5e38\u898b\u554f\u984c<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"schema-faq wp-block-yoast-faq-block\"><div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1677382921334\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\uff1f<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4 ( Gambler&#8217;s Fallacy ) \u4ea6\u88ab\u7a31\u4f5c\u8499\u7279\u5361\u6d1b\u8b2c\u8aa4 ( Monte Carlo Fallacy )\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u975e\u5e38\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\u504f\u8aa4\u73fe\u8c61\u3002<br\/><strong>\u8ced\u5f92\u504f\u8aa4\u7684\u610f\u601d<\/strong>\u6307\u7684\u662f\uff1a\u300c\u932f\u8aa4\u5730\u8a8d\u70ba\u96a8\u6a5f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u4e4b\u524d\u7121\u95dc\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u300d\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6703\u8a8d\u70ba\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u672a\u4f86\u4e8b\u4ef6\u767c\u751f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u3002<\/p> <\/div> <div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1677382943315\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\uff1f<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">\u60f3\u8981\u5b8c\u5168<strong>\u907f\u514d\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4<\/strong>\u662f\u5f88\u96e3\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u672c\u4f86\u5c31\u662f\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u6163\u6027\u601d\u7dad\u6240\u5c0e\u81f4\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6211\u5011\u4ecd\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u904e\u591a\u65b9\u601d\u8003\u3001\u5be9\u614e\u8a55\u4f30\u4f86\u64fa\u812b\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p> <\/div> <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u8b80\u8005\u6709\u807d\u904e\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4 ( Gambler&#8217;s Fallacy ) \u9019\u500b\u8a5e\u55ce\uff1f\u8b80\u8005\u53ef\u77e5\u9053\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\uff1f\u6211\u5011\u53c8\u8a72\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u5462\uff1f<br \/>\n\u672c\u7bc7\u4ecb\u7d39\u5c07\u6703\u8b1b\u8ff0\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u9084\u6703\u8aaa\u8aaa\u6211\u5011\u8a72\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\uff0c\u60f3\u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u7684\u8b80\u8005\u5c31\u4f86\u770b\u770b\u672c\u7bc7\u4ecb\u7d39\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[99,134],"tags":[209,97,105,313],"blocksy_meta":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\uff1f\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1f\u4e00\u7d55\u62db\u8b93\u4f60\u907f\u514d\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4 - \u6295\u8cc7\u7375\u624b<\/title>\n<meta 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